10/08/2015
According to research implemented by Sabancı University on behalf of the International Forwarders' Association (UND), reciprocal trade with the EU may increase by a further 10 billion Euros.
A team led by Sabancı University School of Management Dean Professor Füsun Ülengin and composed of Doğuş and Istanbul Technical University faculy members is currently undertaking a project for the International Forwarders' Association (UND).
The study aims to uncover the negative impact of trade quotas on Turkey's exports. In the first stage of the study, a gravity model was built based solely on bilateral quotas. This revealed Turkey's financial losses arising out of quotas. Next, a successful application was submitted to the TÜBİTAK 3001 project call. The project features an in-depth analysis that considers not only bilateral quotas, but all transit quotas in their entirety. Emphasizing that Sabancı University is the implementer of the TÜBİTAK project, Füsun Ülengin said “We are determining the actual volume of bilateral trade made by Turkey between any two points in the EU, and the theoretical maximum trade volume in the absence of quotas. We completed this phase of the study. In the next phase, we will include these values in the gravity model and make export predictions for Turkey. Besides, we worked with all freight forwarders to produce a detailed cost analysis of all routes. We will use a simulation model to analyze the findings offered by the gravity model to determine the full extent of our losses due to quotas."
UND Chair Çetin Nuhoğlu said, "According to the study performed by Sabancı University, reciprocal trade with the EU may increase by 10 billion Euros." Nuhoğlu explained that forwarding not undertaken by Turkey due to quotas went to forwarders based in Bulgaria, Romania and Poland, and said that under full liberalization, Turkey could potentially export an additional 200 million Euros in services.
The first stage of the study was published in the Transport Policy journal last year, and became one of the most-cited articles.